5th Regional Dialogue On Afghanistan

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Context: India reiterated its call for an “inclusive and representative” government in Afghanistan, with National Security Adviser Ajit Doval declaring that the people of Afghanistan were among India’s “foremost priorities”.

Details:

He was speaking at the ‘5th Regional Dialogue on Afghanistan’ being held in Moscow.
Addressing the delegates, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow was in contact with the Taliban rulers in Kabul, adding that large economic projects are under way in Afghanistan that could “stabilise the situation in the economy”.
Doval highlighted India’s “historical and special relationship” with Afghanistan and said that the “well-being and humanitarian needs of the people of Afghanistan” would “continue to guide” India’s policy towards Kabul.
He emphasised that Afghan territory should not be used for terrorism and that the natural resources of Afghanistan should be utilised “first for the welfare of Afghanistan”.
India has not recognised the Taliban administration in Kabul. However, a technical team stationed at the Indian embassy in the Afghan capital has been overseeing the humanitarian assistance that India has been providing over the past year.
His remarks came days after India’s Union Budget presentation, which allocated ₹200 crore for the development and humanitarian needs of the Afghan people.
The meeting was also attended by Mr. Doval’s counterparts from Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The third round of the dialogue had been held in Delhi under the chairmanship of Mr. Doval in November 2021.

Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan:

After the withdrawal of US forces and the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, with India’s stake in the region, has taken the initiative to organise a conference of regional stakeholders and important powers on the country’s current situation and future outlook.
India’s top security establishment, the National Security Council Secretariat, has taken the lead in organising the in-person meeting and invited Afghanistan’s neighbourssuch as Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and other key players including Russia, and China.
The meeting was also attended by Mr. Doval’s counterparts from Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The third round of the dialogue had been held in Delhi under the chairmanship of Mr. Doval in November 2021.
India hosted the 3^rdmeeting on security dialogue and adopted the Delhi Declaration.

Delhi Declaration:

The eight participating nations adopted the Delhi Declaration as an outcome of the security dialogue.
- Emphasized strong support for a peaceful, secure and stable Afghanistan while stressing the respect for sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity and non-interference in its internal affairs.
- Expressed concern for the suffering of the people of Afghanistanemanating from the precarious security situation there and also condemned the terrorist attacks that took place in the region.
- Stressed that the territory of Afghanistan should not be used for harbouring, nurturing or financing any terrorist activity.
- Condemned all terrorist activities and reaffirmed their staunch commitment to fight terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, including its financing, the dismantling of terrorist infrastructure and countering radicalization, to assure that Afghanistan would never become a haven for global terrorism.
- Called for cooperation to fight radicalization, extremism, separatism and drug trafficking in the region.
- Emphasized the formation of an inclusive government in Afghanistan that would be truly representative of all the different factions and sections of Afghan society.
- Stressed the important role played by the United Nations in the region and said that its continued presence there is warranted.
- Reiterated that the fundamental rights of women, children and minorities are maintained.
- Stressed the need to continue giving humanitarian aid to the people of Afghanistan in a non-discriminatory manner.
- Reiterated the importance of their dialogue and agreed to remain engaged with each other in the future.

Why relations with Afghanistan matters?

Geostrategic and geopolitical location

Afghanistan has been a key player in Asian geopolitics owing to its geostrategic and geopolitical location.
Being situated at the crossroads of the Middle East, Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent, it has been a transit and transport hub since the ancient Silk route.
It has borders with six other nations including Iran, Pakistan, China, Turkmenistan have made it a hot-bed for conflict and cooperation.

Regional organisation

It is also perhaps the only SAARC nation whose people have much affection for India.
After a break between 1996 and 2001, when India joined the world in shunning the previous Taliban regime, one way New Delhi re-established ties with the country was to pour in development assistance.

Historical background:

India and Afghanistan have a strong relationship based on historical and cultural links.
The relationship has its foundations in the historical contacts and exchanges between the people.
In recent past, India-Afghanistan relations have been further strengthened by the Strategic Partnership Agreement, which was signed between the two countries in October 2011.

Political relations:

High Level Visits

Prime Minister of India visited Herat in 2016 and inaugurated the Afghan-India Friendship Dam, earlier known as Salma Dam.
Prime Minister along with a high level delegation inaugurated the newly built Afghan Parliament and gifted four Mi-25 Attack helicopters to the Afghan Air Force in 2016.
President Ghani paid a working visit to India in 2018 and expressed satisfaction at the increase in bilateral trade that had crossed the US $ 1 billion
India agreed to implement important new projects such as the
- Shahtoot Dam and drinking water project for Kabul that would also facilitate irrigation; water supply for Charikar City; road connectivity to Band-e-Amir in Bamyan Province that would promote tourism;
- low cost housing for returning Afghan refugees in Nangarhar Province to assist in their resettlement;
- a gypsum board manufacturing plant in Kabul to promote value added local industry development and import substitution;
- a polyclinic in Mazar-e-Sharifamong others.
In addition, India also committed to take up additional 116 High Impact Community Development Projects in 34 provinces of Afghanistan.

Commercial Relations:

India has been a natural trading partner for Afghanistan and is the largest market in South Asiafor its products.
The total bilateral trade between India and Afghanistan for CY 2019-20 was at US$ 5 billion.
Difficulties in transit via Pakistan was a major hurdle in expanding the trade ties.
In order to expand trade to India, the Afghan government in collaboration with Government of India launched a dedicated Air Freight Corridoron 19 June 2017.
Operationalization of the Chabahar Port in December 2017, followed by commercial agreement to manage port operations in February 2018, clearly demonstrate the feasibility of Chabahar Port as a transit point for Afghanistan and eventually to Central Asia.

Afghanistan-India Culture Relations:

There have been several exchanges of artistes and music troupes over the past few years.
In addition to the above people to people exchanges, the two Governments came together to establish an India- Afghanistan Foundation (IAF)in 2007.
IAF is a trust fund, which finances projects aimed at fostering India-Afghanistan relations through enhancement of economic, scientific, educational, technical as well as cultural cooperation.

Sports Cooperation:

India and Afghanistan have robust relations in the field of sports.
Since 2011, Afghanistan Under-14 & Under-17 Boys’ and Under-17 Girls’ football teams have been participating in the Subroto Cup International Tournament organised every year by the India Air Force.
Cricket has been a major factor in promoting people-to-people ties between the two countries. Afghanistan Cricket Board (ACB) has been alloted three cricket home grounds in India (Noida, Dehradun and Lucknow).
India is also involved in construction cricket stadiums and grounds in various provinces of Afghanistan.

High Impact Community Development Projects (HICDP):

Since 2005, India and Afghanistan have partnered in the area of community development through the HICDP program.
Under this scheme, US$ 120 mn has been committed till date to various small to medium scale projects in areas such as education, health, water management, government buildings, sport facilities, agriculture and irrigation, etc.
Around 433 High Impact Community Development Projects have been completed with Indian financial support in all 34 provinces of Afghanistan so far and around 110 projects are ongoing in various provinces of Afghanistan.
During FY 2019-20, 37 projects were completed in various provinces of Afghanistan under the High Impact Community Development Project (HICDP) scheme of Government of India.

Human Resource Development and Capacity Building:

Human resource development and capacity building initiatives constitute an important segment of India's assistance in Afghanistan.
On an average, more than 3,500 Afghan nationals undergo training/education in India every year.
More than 15,000 Afghan students pursue education in India on self-financing basis.
India’s assistance in human resource development has helped to create a large pool of trained manpower that has been an asset to both the public and private sectors in Afghanistan.

Humanitarian Assistance:

Major humanitarian assistance by India to Afghanistan in recent years include the following:
To combat the global pandemic of COVID-19 and related issues of food security, India is commited to deliver 75,000 MT of Wheat to Afghanistan in 2020.
In addition, India has also undertaken supply of 5 lakh tablets of Hydroxy-chloroquinine, 1 Lakh tablets of Paracetamol and 50,000 pairs of surgical gloves to Government of Afghanistan in 2020.
To promote food security, particularly children during the times of drought, India has distributed 2000 tonnes of pulses to Afghanistan in 2018.
A Medical Diagnostic Centre in Kabul was set up in 2015. The Centre provides latest diagnostic facilities to children of Afghanistan thereby generating goodwill for India.

Indian Diaspora in Afghanistan:

Presently, there are estimated to be about 1710 Indians in the country.
Most of the Indians in Afghanistan are engaged as professionals in Banks, IT firms, construction companies, hospitals, NGOs, telecom companies, security companies, universities, Govt. of India sponsored projects, Govt. of Afghanistan and UN Missions.

India-Afghan Relations after Taliban Takeover:

India follows 'zero-tolerance policy' towards terrorism.
India propagate an Afghan-led, Afghan-controlled and Afghan-owned Inclusive Peace Process.
India seeks a bigger role of United Nations in the Afghan peace process.
India criticizes the role of Pakistan in promoting terror groups and for installing the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

Challenges for India:

Dealing with the Taliban regime:
- Regardless of whether or not India recognises the Taliban as the legitimate ruler in Afghanistan, the government will have to open channels of communication to engage the Taliban.
- India has three critical areas in dealing with the Taliban:

1. 1. protecting its investments, which run into billions of rupees, in Afghanistan
  2. preventing a future Taliban regime from being a pawn of Rawalpindi;
  3. making sure that the Pakistan-backed anti-India terrorist groups do not get support from the Taliban.

Strategic choices with Afghanistan:
- how its strategic options in Afghanistan will change given the Taliban’s proximity to Pakistan’s establishment
- India’s influence with the new government is likely to be considerably curtailed, as Pakistan’s influence over the Taliban remains strong, and the government will have to reconsider whether to now engage Pakistan directly as well
- Concerns that anti-India terror groups could occupy space in Afghanistan to carry out terror attacks against India
- Other strategic issues involving future connectivity, which India had sought to do via Chabahar port in Iran, must also be considered in the longer term. Trade through Afghanistan under a Taliban regime would be routed through Karachi and Gwadar, and the Indian investment in the Chabahar port, meant to circumvent Pakistan, may become unviable.
- The Taliban’s control will also mean a bigger hand for the Pakistani military and intelligence agencies to influence outcomes for the country.
- For New Delhi, already countering hostilities at the LAC with China and the LoC with Pakistan, an unfriendly government in Kabul can only complicate its strategic options.
- The Indian-built projects, including the already built Zaranj-Delaram Highway and Salma Dam, are already under Taliban control, and a cloud hangs over those under construction, including check-dams, schools and urban projects.
Threat of radicalisation: the threat of growing radicalisation and space for pan-Islamic terror groups in India’s neighbourhood.
New Regional Geopolitical Developments: There can be new regional geopolitical alignments (such as China-Pakistan-Taliban) which may go against the interests of India.
Impact on Afghanistan: there is the worry for India of the impact on Afghanistan itself, given the Taliban’s past record in power, of an erosion in women’s and minority rights, the overturning of a democratic system and the imposition of the Taliban’s brutal form of justice. A Taliban regime in Kabul will have fewer international partners, and receive far less financial assistance, the impact of which will be felt most keenly by Afghanistan’s most vulnerable.

Way Forward:

Broader Diplomatic Engagement: India should consider appointing a special envoy dedicated to Afghanistan. The envoy can ensure that Indian views are expressed at every meeting, and broaden engagement with the Taliban.
Decoupling of Taliban-Pakistan: The Taliban is bound to seek a measure of autonomy from Pakistan. India will have to wait a while before the current issues between India and the Taliban can be overcome.
Balancing the Opportunities in Afghanistan: Structuring the internal balance of power within Afghanistan has always been hard. However, for a patient, open-minded and active India, there will be no dearth of balancing opportunities in Afghanistan.
Leverage Indian Infrastructural Developments: Indian USD 3 billion assistance to Afghanistan is in concrete projects that serve its population and have earned it their goodwill that will endure.
Continued Training and Investments:
- India should provide more military training to Afghan security forces and invest in longer-term capacity-building programs.
- It should actively support and invest in the National Directorate of Security
- Finally, given the continued levels of violence and the impact of the coronavirus on the Afghan economy, India should expand its development assistance.

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