BIPORJOY

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Context

• The development and intensification of a cyclonic storm named "Biporjoy" in the east-central and southeast Arabian Sea.

Details

Formation and Intensification:

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reports the development of cyclonic storm "Biporjoy" over the east-central and southeast Arabian Sea.
• The system intensified rapidly from a depression to a deep depression and further to a cyclonic storm on June 6, 2023.

Movement and Expected Intensity:

• In the last six hours, the deep depression moved northwards at a speed of 4 kmph.
• The cyclonic storm is forecasted to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm within the next 24 hours.
• The IMD predicts very severe cyclonic conditions with a wind speed of 115-125 kmph and gusts of 140 kmph on June 8.
• The severe cyclonic storm is expected to persist until June 11, with wind speeds estimated at 135-145 kmph and gusts of 160 kmph.

Potential Landfall and Uncertainty:

• Different weather forecast models provide contrasting predictions for the cyclone's track.
• The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model suggests the system might move towards the Sindh province of Pakistan.
• The Global Forecast System (GFS) model indicates the possibility of landfall in Oman.
• The system's track and landfall location are still uncertain, and further monitoring is required to make accurate predictions.

Impact on Pakistan and Oman:

• The cyclonic storm is currently located 1,420 km south of Karachi, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
• PMD states that no coastal areas of Pakistan are currently under threat, and the situation is being monitored.
• Oman has experienced numerous landfall events with tropical cyclones in the past, resulting in extreme winds, storm surges, and flash floods.

Climate Change Connection:

• Rising sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea, influenced by climate change, contribute to the formation of intense cyclones.
• Sea surface temperatures of 30-32 degrees Celsius, above the climatological mean, are favorable for cyclone development.
• The cyclonic system may delay the arrival and progress of the southwest monsoon in India due to moisture diversion.

Impact on Monsoon and Climate Patterns:

• The cyclonic system hinders monsoon winds and moisture flow, potentially causing a delay in the onset and progression of the southwest monsoon in India.
• Long-term Indian Ocean warming and the development of El Nino could weaken the monsoon, affecting the overall climate patterns in the region.

PRACTICE QUESTION Q. Analyze the relationship between El Nino and Tropical Cyclones. Discuss their impacts 250.  (250 words)

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/biporjoy-cyclonic-storm-develops-over-arabian-sea-could-make-landfall-in-pakistan-or-oman-89858