INDIA’S NUCLEAR DOCTRINE

Copyright infringement not intended

Picture Courtesy: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/25-years-why-indias-nuclear-doctrine-relevant-9518938/

 

Context: India's nuclear doctrine remains relevant for maintaining stability amid regional arms races.

Details

• India's nuclear doctrine, drafted 25 years ago, remains a foundation of national security policy.
• Despite evolving global and regional security dynamics, this doctrine continues to play a crucial role in maintaining stability and peace.

What Is India’s Nuclear Doctrine?

India's nuclear doctrine, first drafted in 1999 and operationalized in 2003, was designed to outline how India would use its nuclear weapons. It focuses on the following principles:

No First Use (NFU) Policy

• The Foundation of India’s nuclear doctrine is the "No First Use" (NFU) policy. This means India will only use nuclear weapons in retaliation for a nuclear attack.
• The goal is to prevent the first use of nuclear weapons and reduce the risk of nuclear war by ensuring that India’s nuclear arsenal serves solely as a deterrent.
• Example: If a country attacks India with nuclear weapons, India will respond with nuclear force. However, India will not use nuclear weapons unless provoked first.

Credible Minimum Deterrence

• India aims to maintain a “credible minimum deterrence.” This involves:
  • • Sufficient and Survivable Forces: India ensures it has enough nuclear weapons to cause significant damage to any attacker, even if the country itself is hit first.
    • Operational Preparedness: India’s nuclear forces are always ready for action if needed.
    • Effective Intelligence and Early Warning: India invests in intelligence and surveillance to detect potential threats and prepare in advance.
    • Communicating Deterrence: India makes sure potential adversaries know that it has a comprehensive nuclear capability.
• Case Study: During the Kargil Conflict in 1999, India’s nuclear deterrent played a role in preventing the conflict from escalating into a full-scale war. The nuclear doctrine’s principle of minimum deterrence reassured both domestic and international observers of India's commitment to avoid unnecessary escalation.

Massive Retaliation

• If India is attacked with nuclear weapons, its response will be severe and devastating, ensuring that the aggressor suffers unacceptable damage. This principle aims to discourage any nation from considering a nuclear attack on India.

 Political Control of Nuclear Weapons

• The decision to use nuclear weapons rests with India’s political leadership, specifically the Prime Minister, who is advised by the Nuclear Command Authority (NCA).
  • • This ensures that nuclear decisions are made with full political oversight and not by military or bureaucratic officials alone.
• The Prime Minister consults with the Cabinet Committee on Security Affairs, the National Security Advisor, and the Chairman of the Chief of Staff Committee before deciding on nuclear use.
  • • This collective decision-making process highlights the seriousness with which nuclear decisions are treated.

No Use Against Non-Nuclear States

• India’s doctrine states that nuclear weapons will not be used against countries that do not possess nuclear weapons. This aligns with India’s policy of responsible nuclear behaviour and its commitment to international norms.

Response to Chemical or Biological Attacks

• India retains the option to use nuclear weapons in retaliation to chemical or biological attacks. This serves as an additional deterrent against such unconventional threats.

Commitment to Non-Proliferation and Disarmament

• India supports global efforts to control nuclear proliferation and is committed to negotiations for a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty.
• India also advocates for a nuclear-free world and fair disarmament practices, although it has not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

India's nuclear doctrine reflects a stance of restraint and stability, aiming to avoid unnecessary escalation and to promote peace through deterrence rather than aggression.

Doctrine Remains Relevant

Strategic Stability Amid Regional Tensions	●Despite regional tensions, particularly with Pakistan and China, India’s doctrine has provided a stable framework. ●Pakistan’s focus on “full spectrum deterrence” and China’s expanding nuclear capabilities are notable. However, India’s doctrine ensures that its nuclear posture remains a stabilizing force rather than contributing to an arms race. Pakistan’s nuclear strategy often emphasizes its capability for first use, suggesting a more aggressive stance. China’s increasing nuclear arsenal and advancements in delivery systems also add complexity to the regional security environment. ●India's doctrine, with its emphasis on minimum deterrence and no-first-use, helps prevent unnecessary escalation and maintains a clear strategic boundary.
Technological and Strategic Adaptability	●Although the global security environment has evolved, India’s doctrine is designed to be adaptable. ●The doctrine supports a dynamic approach to nuclear capability, allowing for updates and enhancements in response to new threats and technological developments. ●The doctrine’s flexibility ensures that India can adjust its strategies to address emerging challenges while adhering to its core principles.
The Debate on No-First-Use (NFU)	●The NFU policy has faced criticism, with some arguing that it might encourage opponents. However, NFU is intended to reduce the risk of nuclear war by assuring that nuclear weapons will not be used first. This approach helps to avoid triggering a nuclear conflict based on miscalculations or provocations. ●For example, during a crisis, an NFU policy can prevent hasty decisions driven by fear of a surprise attack. It also avoids the complexity and potential instability associated with a first-use policy, which might encourage adversaries to first strike to avoid losing their nuclear capabilities.

Key Challenges

Evolving Regional Threats

• The strategic environment in South Asia is changing, with Pakistan’s emphasis on "full spectrum deterrence" and China’s expanding nuclear capabilities.
• Pakistan’s development of short-range, tactical nuclear weapons raises concerns that these could be used in a regional conflict, challenging India’s NFU policy.
• China’s growing nuclear capabilities, including advanced delivery systems, further complicate the strategic balance.

Technological Advancements

• Advances in technology, such as precision-guided conventional weapons, cyber threats, and artificial intelligence, could impact the effectiveness of India’s nuclear deterrence.
  • • For example, improvements in missile accuracy and cyber capabilities could potentially weaken India’s second-strike capability.
• The development of hypersonic missiles by other nations poses a challenge to India’s ability to ensure the survivability of its nuclear arsenal. These missiles can potentially evade traditional missile defence systems, affecting India’s strategic calculations.

Global Nuclear Dynamics

• The global nuclear landscape is becoming increasingly complex with new nuclear states and ongoing arms control challenges.
  • • The non-signing of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by India and the lack of progress in nuclear disarmament discussions could isolate India diplomatically and impact its strategic posture.
• The stagnation in global arms control efforts and the U.S.-Russia arms control breakdown could affect India’s strategic environment, pushing it to reconsider its nuclear stance.

Way Forward for India’s Nuclear Doctrine

Strengthening Deterrence Capabilities

• India should continue to modernize its nuclear forces to ensure their effectiveness and survivability.
  • • This includes investing in advanced delivery systems, improving early warning capabilities, and enhancing missile defence systems to counter emerging threats.
• Upgrading the Agni series of missiles and investing in next-generation submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) could enhance India’s second-strike capability and maintain a credible deterrent.

Enhancing Technological Resilience

• India should address the challenges posed by technological advancements by investing in cyber defence and countering missile threats. Ensuring the robustness of nuclear command and control systems against cyber threats is crucial.
• Developing secure communication channels and adopting advanced encryption methods can protect against cyber threats that could target nuclear command structures.

Engaging in Diplomatic Efforts

• India should continue to advocate for global nuclear disarmament while simultaneously engaging in diplomatic dialogues to address regional security concerns.
  • • Strengthening partnerships and participating in multilateral forums can help in shaping a favourable strategic environment.
• India’s role in the United Nations Conference on Disarmament and its engagement with major powers on arms control issues can enhance its diplomatic standing and influence global nuclear policies.

Reviewing and Adapting Policy

• Periodically reviewing the nuclear doctrine in light of changing security dynamics and technological advancements is essential. This review should involve comprehensive assessments of regional threats and global nuclear trends.
• Regular updates to the doctrine, based on strategic evaluations, can help India adapt to new challenges and maintain a credible deterrent posture.

Conclusion

• India’s nuclear doctrine, with its emphasis on No First Use and credible minimum deterrence, has been the foundation of its strategic policy. However, evolving threats, technological advancements, and global nuclear dynamics present significant challenges. By strengthening its deterrence capabilities, enhancing technological resilience, engaging in diplomatic efforts, and periodically reviewing its nuclear policy, India can navigate these challenges and maintain a comprehensive and effective nuclear strategy.

Source:

Indian Express

PIB

Wikipedia

The Diplomat

Capsindia

PRACTICE QUESTION Q. Analyze the strategic rationale behind India’s "No First Use" (NFU) policy in the context of its regional security environment. How does this policy align with India's security and diplomatic goals?