LIBYAN CRISIS | IAS GYAN

Copyright infringement not intended

Context: Libya’s worst fighting for two years suddenly hit the capital, Tripoli.

How did Libya fall apart?

Libya’s fault lines surfaced as local groups took different positions in the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that toppled Muammar Gaddafi.
An attempted democratic transition slid out of control as armed groups built local power bases and coalesced round rival political factions, seizing control of economic assets.
After a battle for Tripoli in 2014, one faction including most parliament members moved east and recognised Khalifa Haftar as military chief, eventually setting up a parallel government.
A U.N.-backed agreement led to a new internationally recognised government in Tripoli, but eastern factions spurned the deal and Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) attacked the capital in 2019.
The squabbling armed factions that controlled western Libya came together to back the Tripoli government against Haftar and they repelled his assault in 2020 with help from Turkey, leading to a ceasefire and a new U.N.-backed peace process.

How did the latest dispute unfold?

The peace process brought in a new Government of National Unity under Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah with a mandate to oversee national elections scheduled for December 2021, but there was no agreement on rules for the vote and the process collapsed.
In eastern Libya, the parliament declared Dbeibah’s government illegal and appointed a new one under Fathi Bashagha. Dbeibah rejected its moves, saying he would cede power only after an election.
Meanwhile, the western Libya factions that had joined together against Haftar were again jostling for position in Tripoli with occasional skirmishes, and some saw Bashagha as their best bet for advancement.
As the months passed, alliances and coalitions among the Tripoli factions shifted as both Dbeibah and Bashagha tried to court key players. On the streets of Tripoli, armed forces rubbed up against each other’s territory.

What are the chances of a political deal?

The powerful eastern faction of Haftar and parliament speaker Aguila Saleh has shown little willingness to compromise on its goal of removing Dbeibah and installing Bashagha.
However, with Bashagha seeming unable to build a coalition of western factions that can install him in Tripoli, they may have to think again.
Turkey’s continued military presence around Tripoli, where it maintained air bases with drones after helping fend off the eastern assault in 2020, means another Haftar offensive against the capital looks very unlikely for now.
Meanwhile, diplomacy has stalled and agreement on how to hold elections as a lasting solution to Libya’s political disputes looks further away than ever.
International efforts to broker agreement have been hampered by disagreement among the countries involved and among local factions that many Libyans believe want to avoid elections in order to hang onto power.
Many among Libya’s population of nearly 7 million fear that means that however the next period of negotiations and positioning play out, it will only be followed by another outbreak of violence.

How does it all affect Libya’s oil?

Control over revenues from Libya’s main export, its oil output of up to 1.3 million barrels per day, has long been the biggest prize for all the main political and military factions.
Groups have repeatedly shut down output before as a tactic to put pressure on the government in Tripoli where all foreign oil sales revenue is channelled into the central bank through international agreements.