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Context: Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister, has been forced to resign and flee the country due to mass anti-government protests.
Details
- Sheikh Hasina, the former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, was forced to resign and flee the country amid massive anti-government protests.
- After more than 20 years (June 1996 to July 2001 and again from January 2009 to August 2024) in power, her departure marked a significant shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape.
- The protests, which had escalated over the past three weeks, led to violent clashes and widespread unrest in Dhaka. Following her exit, the streets of Dhaka saw both celebrations and chaos, as protesters celebrated and looted Hasina’s residence.
Current Situation
- Hasina arrived in India on a military aircraft and is reportedly planning to seek asylum in the United Kingdom. However, her asylum plans face uncertainty due to calls from British officials for an independent UN-led investigation into the violence that led to her ouster.
Interim Government Formation
- General Waker-Uz-Zaman, the new army chief of Bangladesh, has announced that an interim government will soon be formed.
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- This new government will be set up after consultations with various political parties, but notably, the former ruling party, Awami League, led by Sheikh Hasina, will not be included.
- Student Protests: The student protests, which initially focused on job quotas, later expanded to demand Hasina’s resignation. The students are now advocating for an interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel Peace laureate. This reflects the significant role students have played in the recent political upheaval.
International Response
- US and UN Stance: The United States has called for the formation of a democratic and inclusive interim government and urged all parties to avoid further violence. The UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, has called for a full and independent investigation into the violence that led to Hasina’s ouster.
- Diplomatic Efforts: The international community is closely watching the situation in Bangladesh. Efforts are focused on ensuring stability and addressing human rights concerns. How these efforts unfold will impact the formation of the interim government and the country’s future political direction.
Impact of Sheikh Hasina’s Eviction on India-Bangladesh Relations
- Sheikh Hasina’s resignation as Prime Minister of Bangladesh and her subsequent flight from the country could significantly affect the relationship between India and Bangladesh.
- Hasina’s tenure saw a strong partnership between the two nations, marked by economic cooperation and strategic collaborations.
- Her departure could disrupt ongoing trade agreements, infrastructure projects, and overall bilateral relations.
Economic Ties
- Current Trade Volume: India and Bangladesh have a robust trade relationship. In the financial year 2023-24, their bilateral trade reached $13 billion.
- Exports and Imports: Bangladesh is a major market for Indian cotton, absorbing 34.9% of India's cotton exports, valued at about $2.4 billion. India exports petroleum products and cereals to Bangladesh, while Bangladesh exports ready-made garments to India, totalling $391 million in 2024.
- Potential Free Trade Agreement (FTA): In October 2023, India and Bangladesh began discussions on an FTA. An FTA aims to reduce or eliminate customs duties on traded goods and ease trade regulations. A full FTA could boost Bangladesh’s exports to India by 182%, and a partial one could increase exports by 134%. Enhanced infrastructure and connectivity could further amplify these benefits.
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The ongoing discussions and potential implementation of the FTA might face delays or changes under the new interim government. This could impact trade dynamics and the economic benefits projected from the FTA.
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Infrastructure and Connectivity
- Lines of Credit: India has provided Bangladesh with $8 billion in lines of credit since 2016 for developing infrastructure such as roads, railways, shipping, and ports.
- Recent Developments: In November 2023, two significant projects were inaugurated:
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- Akhaura-Agartala Cross-Border Rail Link: This new rail line, the sixth between India and Bangladesh, reduces travel time between Agartala and Kolkata from 31 hours to 10 hours, enhancing trade, tourism, and people-to-people connections.
- Khulna-Mongla Port Rail Line: This project facilitates cargo movement to and from Mongla Port, boosting connectivity.
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Disruption in Indo-Bangladesh relations could impact these infrastructure projects. For instance, the Akhaura-Agartala link and other connectivity initiatives might face delays or operational challenges, affecting India’s access to its northeastern states.
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Transport Links
- Bus Routes: There are five operational bus routes between the two countries, linking Kolkata, Agartala, and Guwahati to Dhaka.
- Port Access: Agreements to use Chittagong and Mongla ports for cargo movement are in place, aiding transportation between India and its northeastern regions.
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Any disruption in ties could restrict India’s access to the Northeast, as the region is linked to mainland India through the narrow "Chicken’s Neck" corridor between West Bengal and Assam.
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Way Forward for India-Bangladesh Relations Post-Hasina
Engage with the New Government
- Diplomatic Channels: India should actively engage with the interim government in Bangladesh to understand their priorities and concerns. Building communication with the new leadership will be crucial for maintaining diplomatic and economic ties.
- Support for Stability: Offering support for political stability and economic recovery in Bangladesh can help foster goodwill and strengthen bilateral relations. India can play a role in facilitating international aid or mediating support from global financial institutions.
Advance Trade Relations
- Pursue the FTA: Continue negotiations on the Free Trade Agreement (FTA). An FTA could be mutually beneficial, providing economic growth opportunities for both countries. India should work with the new Bangladeshi government to advance these discussions and address any concerns they may have.
- Trade Diversification: Explore new trade opportunities and diversify exports and imports to mitigate any disruptions. Encouraging investment in sectors where both countries have complementary strengths can help sustain economic engagement.
Strengthen Infrastructure and Connectivity
- Complete Ongoing Projects: Ensure the completion and operationalization of ongoing infrastructure projects, such as the Akhaura-Agartala rail link and port agreements. These projects are vital for enhancing regional connectivity and supporting economic growth.
- Expand Connectivity: Look for opportunities to further enhance connectivity, including additional transport routes and logistical support. Improved infrastructure will benefit both countries and ensure continued economic integration.
Focus on Regional Security
- Collaborative Security Efforts: Collaborate on security issues, particularly those related to counter-terrorism and border security. Both countries have shared interests in maintaining regional stability and combating cross-border threats.
- Intelligence Sharing: Strengthen intelligence sharing and coordination to address security challenges and prevent any potential spillover of unrest into the region.
Promote People-to-People Ties
- Cultural and Educational Exchanges: Support cultural and educational exchanges to build mutual understanding and strengthen bilateral relations. Initiatives like student exchange programs, joint research projects, and cultural events can foster deeper connections between the peoples of both countries.
- Tourism Initiatives: Encourage tourism as a way to enhance people-to-people interactions. Improving travel infrastructure and easing visa processes can boost tourism and economic activity.
Monitor Human Rights and Governance
- Promote Human Rights: Advocate for human rights and democratic governance in Bangladesh. Support initiatives that encourage transparency, accountability, and inclusivity in the political process.
- Engage with International Bodies: Collaborate with international organizations, such as the UN, to address any human rights concerns and ensure that the new government respects democratic norms and human rights.
Prepare for Contingencies
- Contingency Planning: Develop contingency plans to manage any potential disruptions in bilateral relations. This includes preparing for changes in trade dynamics, security challenges, or shifts in diplomatic priorities.
- Flexible Diplomacy: Maintain flexibility in diplomatic approaches to adapt to the evolving political landscape in Bangladesh. Being responsive and adaptable will help manage uncertainties and sustain a positive relationship.
Conclusion
- Sheikh Hasina’s eviction presents several challenges for India-Bangladesh relations. The potential delays in trade agreements, infrastructure projects, and transport links could impact both countries' economic and strategic interests. The interim government’s stance on these issues will be crucial in determining the future of the bilateral relationship. India’s continued focus on maintaining and strengthening ties with Bangladesh will be essential to mitigating any negative effects of this political development.
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Source:
Indian Express
One India
The Hindu
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PRACTICE QUESTION
Q. How might the departure of Sheikh Hasina and the potential shift in Bangladesh's political landscape impact the proposed Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between India and Bangladesh, and what specific factors should India consider mitigating any negative effects on bilateral trade?
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