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Context:

Recently government launched the Weather Forecast at the Gram Panchayat level in New Delhi.

About Weather Forecast at Gram Panchayat level 

Initiative Objective	Empower rural communities and enhance disaster preparedness at the grassroots level E.g. 2.5 lakh Gram Panchayats.
Target Beneficiaries	Farmers and villagers across the country.
Weather Update Delivery	Via e-GramSwaraj, Gram Manchitra, and Meri Panchayat will deliver 5-day and hourly weather forecasts.
Ministry	Panchayati Raj Ministry, Earth Sciences Ministry, India Meteorological Department.
Mission Mausam	2000 crore rupees allocated under the government’s Mission Mausam.

Challenges in Localised Forecasting

Weather systems can range from small, short lived thunderstorms only a few miles in diameter that last a couple hours to large scale rain and snow storms up to a thousand miles in diameter and lasting for days.

Forecasting ultimately is a three step process. These include:

1) Observing

2) Forecasting

3) Communicating.

Importance of Localized Forecasting

• Climate change-induced weather uncertainties will help safeguard agricultural livelihoods and enhance rural preparedness against natural disasters.
• Localized forecasts enable small farming communities to plan economic activities with greater confidence. With 55 lakh village panchayats across India, each housing a few thousand residents on average, localized forecasting can have a substantial impact.
• Help in mitigating rural disaster preparedness against extreme weather events, thereby reducing disaster-led mortality.
• IMD serves as UN Early Warning for All advisor to five developing nations, demonstrating leadership in global climate resilience.

IMD has worked on focusing its forecasts more and more narrowly. It currently has the ability to forecast weather events over a 12 km x 12 km area, and has been trying out experimental forecasts for 3 km x 3 km grids, with the eventual objective of making hyper-local forecasts for 1 km x 1 km areas.

Way forward:

The United Nations World Meteorological Organisation is responsible for coordinating cooperation in weather observations of countries and organisations around the world. 

It has established a global observing system with a view to integrating all observing systems and promoting standardization of observational instruments and methods.

World Meteorological Organisation

It is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting international cooperation on atmospheric science, climatology, hydrology, and geophysics. It originated from the International Meteorological Organization, a nongovernmental organization founded in 1873 as a forum for exchanging weather data and research.

The Convention entered into force on 23 March 1950, and the following year the WMO began operations as an intergovernmental organization within the UN system.

The WMO is made up of 193 countries and territories, and facilitates the "free and unrestricted" exchange of data, information, and research between the respective meteorological and hydrological institutions of its members

Conclusion

With the development in weather observations and computer modeling, the forecast accuracy nowadays is higher than before. However, the atmosphere is a chaotic system. It still comes with uncertainty in the evolution of weather and poses a big challenge to forecasters. In recent years, much research has been made in the application of artificial intelligence in weather forecasting, especially the use of deep learning methods.

READ ABOUT 

Mission Mausam, Weather forecast in India

India Meteorological Department

Weather forecasting plays a vital role in country like India

Source:

INDIAN EXPRESS

PRACTICE QUESTION Q.Discuss the role of weather forecasting at the Gram Panchayat level in enhancing disaster preparedness and agricultural productivity. Critically analyze how initiatives and Mission Mausam contribute to rural resilience and economic growth in India. (250 words)