WHAT DO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HURRICANE FORECASTS FORETELL FOR INDIA?

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Context:

Meteorologists had previously forecast a historic hurricane season for 2024 based on the expectation that a strong La Niña would emerge this winter.

Details:

• For the first time in recorded history, the Atlantic basin is simultaneously hosting three active hurricanes in October or later, marking an extraordinary and concerning development in the 2024 hurricane season.
• Hurricanes Milton, Kirk, and Leslie are currently shaking the Atlantic waters, presenting a rare and potentially dangerous scenario for coastal regions and maritime operations.
• The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirmed this unprecedented event, emphasizing the unusual nature of such intense hurricane activity so late in the season. 

Hurricane Milton, the strongest of the trio, has intensified to a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. It's currently moving northward in the central Atlantic, posing no immediate threat to land but causing significant swells along the East Coast of the United States.

Hurricane Kirk, a Category 2 storm, is located in the eastern Atlantic and is expected to remain over open waters. 

Hurricane Leslie, recently formed near the Bahamas and is causing concern for residents in Florida and the southeastern United States.

Impact of Atlantic Ocean hurricane on India

Impacts	Details
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)	Atlantic hurricanes can influence ENSO cycles, affecting India's monsoon patterns. A strong El Niño event can affect the global climate and disrupt normal weather patterns, which can lead to intense storms in some places and droughts in others. E.g. As per Nature Scientific Reports in August 2023- ENSO has had a greater impact on northern parts of India, lesser impact on the central parts and relatively constant impact on the southern parts of the country in recent decades.
Global Weather Patterns	Disruption of global atmospheric circulation may impact India's weather and alter regional climates. Because the Earth is a sphere, and not all of Earth's surfaces absorb and reflect solar radiation at the same rate, the Earth is unevenly heated. E.g. Heatwave is linked to record global temperatures and waning El Nino's influence on wind circulation over Indian landmass
Trade and Commerce	Hurricanes in the Atlantic can disrupt global trade routes, affecting India's import-export activities and economic stability. E.g. Hurricane Helene has exposed a little-known vulnerability in the semiconductor supply chain.  E.g. Recent concerns about Tropical Storm Francine disrupting the supply of oil outweighed worries about demand.
Climate Change	Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes. Rising global temperatures could worsen their impacts, indirectly affecting India's climate. E.g. The 2024 monsoon recorded the highest number of heavy rainfall events in the past five years, highlighting a worrying trend of intensifying weather events. A 1° C increase in average long-term temperatures leads to a 53% increase in the farm incomes of poor households.

KNOW IN DETAIL ABOUT CYCLONE AND ENSO LA NINA

Tropical cyclones

impact of ENSO on India's

ENSO

EL LINO AND LA NINA

Mitigation measures to be taken

• States should mainstream inclusive, impact-based, and community-led MHEWS. Leveraging self-help groups (SHGs) and youth volunteers from local communities will enable states to achieve last-mile connectivity and efficient end-to-end information dissemination.
• States should strengthen early warning dissemination systems (EWDS) by leveraging new-age technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT), cloud computing, and artificial intelligence, which can assist in the monitoring, forecasting, and alarm generation aspects of EWS by providing the tools to sense, clean, process, and analyse the data coming from the environment.
• The central and state governments should invest in regional real-time flood monitoring microsensors. This will enable accurate and real-time collection of data, which can then be shared with the Central Water Commission (CWC) and combined with their flood monitoring data to make flood forecasts more targeted and accurate.
• State and central governments should promote collaborations with the private sector to improve MHEWS efficiency, especially using technology.

ABOUT NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY 

Conclusion

To ensure that climate change adaptation is incorporated into national and local DRR policies, we need to invest more in comprehensive disaster risk management. Establishing effective EWS is a low-hanging fruit in helping accomplish our DRR targets. Leveraging its position as the G20 presidency, India should promote the agenda of making early warnings available to all and champion impact-based people-centric MHEWS.

READ ABOUT

Wind shear: key force determining hurricane strength. 

DISASTER MANAGEMENT

NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY (NDMA)

The Disaster Management (Amendment) Bill

Notified disaster: https://www.iasgyan.in/daily-current-affairs/notified-disasters-8

National Disaster Relief Fund: https://www.iasgyan.in/daily-current-affairs/national-disaster-relief-funds

Source:

HINDU

PRACTICE QUESTION Q.Discuss the long-term implications of climate change on the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes and their potential impact on India. (150 words)