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Context:

The rising concentration of greenhouse gases has led to a rise in global temperatures. Last year was 1.45 degree Celsius hotter than pre-industrial times, the hottest year so far.

Details:

Global emissions are still on the rise, and concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere touched new record levels in 2023. There is no real hope to arrest global rise in temperatures within 1.5 degree Celsius from pre-industrial times, even though some theoretical possibilities are still being discussed. The 2030 emissions reduction targets are going to be missed by a wide margin.

About Paris Agreement

Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to enable the long-term global average surface temperature increase to be kept well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.

At COPs 26, 27, and 28, countries emphasized that the impacts of climate change would be much lower at a temperature increase of 1.5°C, compared with 2°C, and expressed their firm resolve to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

World Meteorological Organization observations

Monthly and annual breaches of 1.5°C do not mean that the world has failed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal, which refers to a long-term temperature increase over decades, not individual months or years.

Temperatures for any single month or year fluctuate due to natural variability, including El Niño/La Niña and volcanic eruptions. Consequently, long-term temperature changes are typically considered on decadal timescales.

Impacts

Limiting global warming to below 1.5°C will significantly reduce the risks, adverse impacts, and related losses and damages from climate change. Failing to do so will lead to increasingly frequent and dangerous extreme weather events including heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and heavy precipitation and flooding.

Extreme heat causes the greatest mortality of all extreme weather, with an estimated 489,000 heat-related deaths per year between 2000 and 2019. 

Exceeding 1.5°C could also trigger multiple climate tipping points — such as breakdowns of major ocean circulation systems, abrupt thawing of boreal permafrost, and collapse of tropical coral reef systems — with abrupt, irreversible, and dangerous impacts for humanity.

Human health impacts from climate change have been apparent for at least 20 years, but the climate crisis is still not treated like other global public health emergencies. The cumulative death toll from climate change since 2000 will pass 4 million in 2024. 

Many climate impacts, especially sea-level rise from ice sheets, disappearance of mountain glaciers, and ocean acidification, are essentially permanent for many generations to come and will take centuries to thousands of years to restore to even today’s conditions. 

To minimize losses and damages, it is crucial to minimize the magnitude and duration of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C by urgently and significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions and phasing out fossil fuels. 

Suggestions

Under global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C with no or limited temporary overshoot, global greenhouse gas emissions peak by 2025, and are reduced by 43% by 2030 relative to 2019. carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reach net zero by 2050.

However, global CO₂ emissions, largely from fossil fuels, continue to rise and reach record levels. At the current rate of emissions, the remaining “carbon budget” for limiting long-term global warming to 1.5°C with a 50% chance would be depleted by 2030.

Countries’ commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Agreement have contributed to reducing the projected global warming by the end of the 21st century from 3.7–4.8°C to 2.4–2.6°C or possibly even lower. While this is far from sufficient, it shows that collective commitments under the Paris Agreement have made a difference.

At COP28 in December 2023, governments also agreed to increase the ambitions of their national climate commitments — due in 2025 — to be in line with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as informed by the latest science, covering the whole economy and all greenhouse gases and sectors.

Conclusion

A wide range of solutions exist, many of which have already been deployed successfully. Well-designed climate policies and economic measures with close linkages between mitigation, adaptation, and development pathways can also help to achieve sustainable development, deliver equity, eradicate poverty, and protect public and planetary health.

Reference- https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/degrees-matter

Source:

Indian Express

PRACTICE QUESTION Q.Discuss the reasons why the global goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is considered unrealistic. Also, evaluate the socio-economic, political, and environmental challenges that hinder the achievement of this target. (250 words)