World Population Prospects 2024

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Context:  Recently, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) released the World Population Prospects 2024 report.

Details

The report

• The 2024 Revisionof World Population Prospects is the twenty-eighth edition
• Prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. 

Key findings

World Population

• The world’s population is expected to continue growingover the coming 50-60 years, reaching a peak of around 3 billion people in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024.
• After peaking, the global population is projected to start declining gradually, falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century.
• By 2080, persons aged 65 or older will outnumber children under 18.

Early childbearing

• In 2024, 4.7 million babies, or about 3.5 per cent of the total worldwide, were born to mothers under age 18 – and some 340,000, to girls under age 15.
• Early childbearing has harmful effects on young mothers and their children

Fertility Rate 

• Currently, the global fertility rate stands at 25 live birthsper woman,1 down from 3.31 births in 1990.
• More than half of all countries and areas globally have fertility below the replacement level of 2.1 live births per woman.

Life expectancy

• Life expectancy: Globally, life expectancy at birth reached 3 years in 2024, an increase of 8.4 years since 1995.
• Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of around 77.4 years globally in 2054.
• Following the COVID-19 pandemic, global life expectancy is rising once again.

India’s Scenario

• India'spopulation in 2024 is projected at 1.45 billion and this will peak to 1.69 billion in 2054. 
• The 80-plus population is set to grow nearly three-fold faster than that of babies by 2100.
• The dependency ratio, which is the number of children and older people as a proportion of working age population (15-64 year old), is expected to rise to 77.5 percent by 2100.
• If the fertility rate were to increase faster (0.5 births above normal) than anticipated, India is likely to become the first country to cross 2 billion population mark by 2070 to 2.2 billion by 2100.

Main drivers of population increase

• Growth in number of women of reproductive age even when the number of births per woman falls to/ below the replacement level (2.1).
• Higher fertility rates in some countries/ regions; increase in life-expectancy, etc.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Rooted in the UN Charter. It  help countries translate their global commitments into national action in the economic, social and environmental spheres. UN DESA is a pioneer of sustainable development and the home of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), where each goal finds its space and where all stakeholders can do their part to leave no one behind. UN DESA helps countries make informed decisions by providing a wealth of information through publications and databases and through our support for international deliberations at the United Nations General Assembly, Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), Commissions, Forums and other bodies Headquarter: New York

Sources:

TheHindu, United Nations,reliefweb.

PRACTICE QUESTION Q. In light of the global population crossing 8 billion people, discuss the opportunities and challenges going ahead. 150 words.